On the way to a new Emirate of Afghanistan
|Subject||On the way to a new Emirate of Afghanistan|
Afghanistan is on the way to the situation it was in the past decade. With all foreign troops due to leave Afghanistan just two years from now in 2014, the news out of the Central Asian nation is becoming increasingly gloomy. The regime in Kabul will most probably collapse in a few years given current irreversible trends.
Political fragmentation, whether in the form of militias or the establishment of sanctuaries in the north, is laying the ground work for a long civil war in Afghanistan that is likely to be fuelled by competition among Pakistan, India and Iran.
President Karzai´s current regime in Kabul is less prepared to survive a challenge by the Taliban than the communist government that hung on for three years against the mujaheddin after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. First the current regime does not possess the ideological and social cohesion of the communist regime, and its ability to survive militarily has not been demonstrated. …Second, the Taliban form a united movement with few rifts (despite wishful western thinking), compared to the infighting of the mujaheddin in the 1990s.
As coalition forces and U.S. combat troops withdraw, the Taliban will “automatically” advance, especially in the east and the south where the insurgency has been contained as a result of constant pressure by the coalition forces.
Meanwhile, the Karzai regime will face three major crises while the coalition withdraws: an economic crisis precipitated by a sharp drop in Western aid and spending; an institutional crisis with the end of Karzai’s term in 2014 and indications that much of the political elite are already preparing to go into exile; and a security crisis in which large parts of the country fall outside the government’s control despite the overwhelming official size of the security forces.
The years of the incompetent and corrupt Afghan Government are numbered.