Afghan Biographies

Karzai and NATO waiting to Lose in Afghanistan

Subject Karzai and NATO waiting to Lose in Afghanistan

Karzai’s future plan A (there is no plan B) is to survive by forming a coalition with the Taliban after 2014 at any price. This plan - with little hope to materialize - will plunge Afghanistan into chaos und civil war. Washington controlled NATO’s principle – at least till the U.S. Presidential elections in November 2012 -  is conniving on the possibility of talks with the exhausted battle sections of the Taliban, coupled by a surge in allied forces offensive against those unwilling to come to the negotiation table. The US strategy will not bear any fruits because the relevant elements such as Pakistan, Mullah Omar, Haqqani und Hekmatyar are left outside the negotiations.

The uncoordinated and conflicting remarks of Afghan Government officials concerning Afghanistan’s future show that behind the incentives for stoppage of night raids in the country, there is the issue of getting privileges from the US, and giving privileges to the Taliban rather than being concerned over civilian casualties. The Government, by trying to stop or limit night raids, wants to express its goodwill to the armed opposition and to invite them to talks table, an effort that has not been successful so far. The peace talks with the Taliban seem to be making another war in the country. While the Government of Afghanistan is talking about the negotiation, they must contemplate their challenges on the ground and ahead.

The Taliban’s plot to overthrow the Afghan Government after the withdrawal the international troops is valid, because the Taliban start to feel that they can kill this Government or the future Government and they can overthrow the Afghan state by force and that negotiations will produce less and fighting more scores.

The administrative corruption will not be rooted out from the Government organs by 2014 and so it will decrease the willingness of the international community to implement their decisions on Afghanistan. Those individuals who benefitted the most from the Government have a major role in damaging the system. Lack of approval of development budget until the mid-year, attorney general’s lacking power and ignorance of local authorities in contracts that are made in the Kabul are challenges that the Government is facing with. President Karzai’s recent order for establishment of a special court to try those involved in the crisis of Kabul Bank is not more than a symbolic act. And to blame the Foreigners for graft in reconstruction schemes is a bit too simple.

And as often heard before, Governors, Residents and MPs of Nuristan and Kunar Province warned that the provinces would soon fall into the hands of the Taliban if the Government doesn’t launch military operations in the province. Poppy cultivation in Kunar increased by 50pc greasing the Taliban’s operations. We will watch the two Provinces fall into Taliban’s hands and that is only the beginning of a slow and bloody decline of the western controlled Karzai regime.

After a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, at tremendous cost in NATO and American blood and treasure, many Westerners are now asking: Why are we there? What do we have to show for our efforts? The answers are troubling: A government, under President Hamid Karzai, that is corrupt, largely incompetent, and of questionable loyalty; inept Afghan security forces that regularly turn their weapons on their American and NATO advisers; and a resurgent Taliban poised to regain control of the country after U.S. and NATO forces withdraw. Many look at these facts and conclude that the NATO and U.S. can’t win in Afghanistan and should therefore get out. United States controlled NATO knows it is no longer determined to end the war as the winner. They have already silently accepted the defeat and decided to bring the troops home face saving, as soon as possible.

Released 2012-04-10